TOURIST ATTRACTION

FACTS ABOUT UGANDA

HOTELS

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3.1 Poverty Estimates by stratum (THIS DOCUMENT WAS COMPLIED BY )

Table 4 gives the estimates of the poverty rate for each of the strata in Uganda and Map 1 maps these estimates. In the map, the poorest areas are dark brown, and the least poor areas are dark green. These results confirm that poverty rate is highest (64.8 percent) in the north coloured brown. Poverty is lower but still close to 40 percent in the eastern region. The rural areas where the poverty rate is lowest are, not surprisingly, the ones in the Central and western. These regions are dark green, implying that they have estimated poverty rates of less than 20 percent. The difference in regional rural poverty incidence ranges from less than 19.3 percentage points in the west to 64.8 percentage points in the north. It is also useful to look at differences in the incidence of poverty in urban and rural areas within each region (see Table 4). In all the 4 regions, the rural poverty rate is higher than the urban poverty rate. In fact, whereas the rural poverty rate ranges widely from 19.3 percent to almost 65 percent, the urban poverty rates are all less than 25 percent except for the North where it is 39.7 percent.

Table 4: Comparison of poverty estimates by Region

In terms of the poverty gap, the northern region (23.5 percent) had the highest poverty gap and the lowest was found in western region (4.52 percent). Income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient was highest in the Central region 0.38 and least in northern 0.31. This implies the distribution of wealth is highly skewed in the Central region unlike in the Northern region where inequality is relatively low.

Although the regional poverty map is useful for identifying the spatial patterns of poverty, Table 4 above provides more detail, including the population share, mean consumption per adult equivalent for the urban and rural areas. However, analyzing poverty at the regional level conceals a lot of information at the lower levels. We analyze the distribution of poverty and other indicators at district, county and sub county levels by region.

Poverty estimates by Sub County: A national comparison: In the appendix we present estimates of the incidence of poverty for each of the 58 [Check this number] districts, 152 counties and 874 rural sub counties in Uganda arranged by respective region, district, county and sub county. We map the poverty and inequality indicators at sub county level first at the national level then by region for each of the four rural regions. For urban areas, we present a separate map for Kampala. The sub county level poverty maps show considerably more detail than the regional poverty maps presented in the previous section.

Maps 2, 3, 4 and 5show the poverty incidence, poverty density, poverty gap and Gini coefficient in Uganda at the sub-county level in 2005/06. With the exception of most sub counties in Northern region, the results shown in the maps are encouraging, with large and widespread improvement in welfare seen countrywide. The highest incidence of poverty in rural areas can be seen in Northern while the lowest are in Central and parts of Western region. The density of poverty is highest in Busoga sub region and parts of Eastern (Mbale and Pallisa). The poverty gap was observed to be consistently low in sub counties that have low poverty levels and vise versa. Generally pockets of high income inequality can be observed in parts of eastern region, western region and parts of central region. A number of key patterns emerge when we overlay changes in poverty over the period 2002/03 and 2005/06 in later sections of this report.

Central region:In the Central region, the results confirm that poverty is relatively higher (30 to 40 percent) in the districts of Kayunga, Nakasongola, Nakaseke, Sembabule, Kiboga and Rakai. More specifically, the poverty rate is lowest in Wakiso, Mukono and Masaka districts. Most districts in the Central region have various shades of green, indicating a poverty rate of less than 30 percent. In contrast, there are no districts with poverty rates above 40 percent, and the gap between the poverty rates of adjacent districts is relatively large. In rural areas, the sub counties of Katabi, Bubeke, Kyamuswa, Nangabo, Bufumira, Nsangi, Goma, Bujjumba and Ssisa in Wakiso and Mukono districts had the lowest poverty rate of less than 10 percent. On the contrary, the poorest sub counties in the Central region were Butemba, Ngoma, Wabinyonyi, Dwaniro, Lwamata, Butoloogo, Lwabyata, Kyankwanzi and Kalongo all with poverty rates above 35 percent.

In terms of the poverty gap, the highest poverty gap (11 percent) was found in the sub counties of Ngoma, Wabinyonyi, Dwaniro, Lwabyata, Kalongo and Kyankwanzi. The rest of the region had a poverty gap of less than 10 percent implying that the amount of resources required to raise the poor to the poverty line was very small in Central region. The sub county map, however, shows that the poverty gap does not vary widely within this region.

Similarly, the map suggests that the entire Central region is light green, implying Gini coefficient in the range of 0.30-0.40. The lowest Gini coefficient was 0.28 in Butolojo in Buwekula county and the highest was 0.42 in Kyankwanzi and Kalisizo. Most sub counties in the Central region have a relatively low inequality.

Eastern Region
In the Eastern region, the sub county poverty map illustrates even more clearly that the sub counties have higher poverty rates compared to Central region (Map 11). This region has one exception in that the pattern of poverty gradually increases towards the north and north east of the region. The lowest poverty rate (between 27 and 30 percent) in this region is found in Busulani (Sironko), Sigulu Islands (Bugiri), Bumayoka (Mbale), Lumino and Buhehe (Busia), Bukigai (Mbale) and Muyembe (Sironko). Again there is considerable heterogeneity in poverty levels in the region. The highest poverty rates are found in Apopong and Puti Puti (Pallisa) sub counties, 62 and 54 percent respectively, and Kateta sub county (Soroti) with 53 percent. Unlike the Central region, poverty rates in the eastern region range from 27 percent to 62 percent. The sub county level poverty map also shows brown areas in the northern part of the region (Teso sub region) as being the poorest.

The poverty density is highest in Pallisa and most sub counties of Busoga sub region with more than 175 poor people per square kilometre (Map 12). Pockets of high poverty density can also be observed in Bubulo, Manjiya and Sironko. Map 13 below shows the poverty gap for Eastern region. At the sub county level, the estimated value of P1 ranges from 0.7 in Busulani (Sironko) to 0.23 in Apopong (Pallisa). This implies that the average poor person has a level of per capita expenditure that is seventy percent below the poverty line in Busulani and 23 percent in Apopong. It would therefore require more resources to pull out of poverty the poor in Apopong than Busulani. It is obvious from Map 12 that the spatial patterns in poverty gap are similar to the spatial pattern of poverty incidence.

Map 14 below shows the level of inequality in per capita expenditure as measured by the Gini coefficient at the sub county level in Eastern region. The areas with the least inequality (shaded grey) 0.29 include the Wanale (Mbale), Chesower (Kapchorwa), Buswale (Bugiri), Kabei (Kapchorwa), Nawanjofu (Bunyole), Kawowo (Kapchorwa), Mutumba (Bugiri) and Katine (Soroti). The greatest level of expenditure inequality is found in Pallisa district particularly in the sub counties of Bulangira (0.54) and Buseta (0.58). Higher rates of inequality are generally observed in the large urban areas. Perhaps the most surprising finding is the high level of inequality in some parts of the East. One possible explanation is that these areas combine very poor subsistence farmers and some richer households who earn income from commerce, commercial agriculture (including coffee production) or salaried employment, including government employment.

Northern Region
The North has some of the poorest sub counties in Uganda (Map 15). In particular, the poverty incidence is high in the central parts of the region (shaded dark brown on the map) indicating poverty rates over 60 percent. The high incidence of poverty in this region is probably because of the insecurity that has affectd the region for more than 2 decades. A relatively large proportion of the population has been displaced by the war. The surprising fact about poverty in this region is that the least poor sub county in the North (Vurra- Arua) has the same poverty rate as the poorest sub county in Central region - Kyankwanzi (38 percent). Poverty in this region ranges from 38 percent to 90 percent.

Map 15 shows the poverty density and Map 16 the depth of poverty at sub county level. The correlation between the poverty incidence and poverty gap is quite strong. The poverty gap is lowest (11 percent) in the least poor sub county. This implies that the percentage gap between the poverty line and the per capita expenditure of the average poor in the north is quite high.

In terms of income inequality, the district-level maps of inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient are shown in Map 17. The maps of inequality show that inequality is lowest in the poorest sub counties of Bokora and Panyangara (0.23). Inequality is highest in Wadelai (Nebbi), Dadamu (Arua), Amudat (Nakapiripirit) and Ongako (Gulu).

Western Region
The Western region shows up clearly as dark green, surrounded by light green and yellow area. This reflects the fact that the sub counties have poverty rates below 30 percent, compared to 40-90 percent in most of the sub counties in the North. The highest poverty rate is found in Bufumbira sub county, Kisoro district. Rwampara (Mbarara) has the lowest poverty rate 8.9 percent. One exception to this pattern is the area around Mbarara district. However, there are pockets of poverty in the areas bordering the northern region – Masindi and South West -Kanungu. The lower poverty rate in this region may reflect the impact of relative peace in the region, fertile soils, reliable rainfall and other factors. Pockets of high poverty densities can be observed in the south western districts and Bundibugyo. Maps 19, 20, 21 and 22 present the poverty rate and density, gap and gini coefficient, respectively.